Granular measures of agricultural land use influence lake nitrogen and phosphorus differently at macroscales.

Agricultural land use is typically associated with high stream nutrient concentrations and increased nutrient loading to lakes. For lakes, evidence for these associations mostly comes from studies on individual lakes or watersheds that relate concentrations of nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) to aggregate measures of agricultural land use, such as the proportion of land used for agriculture in a lake's watershed. However, at macroscales (i.e., in hundreds to thousands of lakes across large spatial extents), there is high variability around such relationships and it is unclear whether considering more granular (or detailed) agricultural data, such as fertilizer application, planting of specific crops, or the extent of near-stream cropping, would improve prediction and inform understanding of lake nutrient drivers. Furthermore, it is unclear whether lake N and P would have different relationships to such measures and whether these relationships would vary by region, since regional variation has been observed in prior studies using aggregate measures of agriculture. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined relationships between granular measures of agricultural activity and lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN) concentrations in 928 lakes and their watersheds in the Northeastern and Midwest U.S. using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach. We found that both lake TN and TP concentrations were related to these measures of agriculture, especially near-stream agriculture. The relationships between measures of agriculture and lake TN concentrations were more regionally variable than those for TP. Conversely, TP concentrations were more strongly related to lake-specific measures like depth and watershed hydrology relative to TN. Our finding that lake TN and TP concentrations have different relationships with granular measures of agricultural activity has implications for the design of effective and efficient policy approaches to maintain and improve water quality.

Ecological prediction at macroscales using big data: Does sampling design matter?

Although ecosystems respond to global change at regional to continental scales (i.e., macroscales), model predictions of ecosystem responses often rely on data from targeted monitoring of a small proportion of sampled ecosystems within a particular geographic area. In this study, we examined how the sampling strategy used to collect data for such models influences predictive performance. We subsampled a large and spatially extensive data set to investigate how macroscale sampling strategy affects prediction of ecosystem characteristics in 6,784 lakes across a 1.8-million-km2 area. We estimated model predictive performance for different subsets of the data set to mimic three common sampling strategies for collecting observations of ecosystem characteristics: random sampling design, stratified random sampling design, and targeted sampling. We found that sampling strategy influenced model predictive performance such that (1) stratified random sampling designs did not improve predictive performance compared to simple random sampling designs and (2) although one of the scenarios that mimicked targeted (non-random) sampling had the poorest performing predictive models, the other targeted sampling scenarios resulted in models with similar predictive performance to that of the random sampling scenarios. Our results suggest that although potential biases in data sets from some forms of targeted sampling may limit predictive performance, compiling existing spatially extensive data sets can result in models with good predictive performance that may inform a wide range of science questions and policy goals related to global change.

Do lakes feel the burn? Ecological consequences of increasing exposure of lakes to fire in the continental United States.

Wildfires are becoming larger and more frequent across much of the United States due to anthropogenic climate change. No studies, however, have assessed fire prevalence in lake watersheds at broad spatial and temporal scales, and thus it is unknown whether wildfires threaten lakes and reservoirs (hereafter, lakes) of the United States. We show that fire activity has increased in lake watersheds across the continental United States from 1984 to 2015, particularly since 2005. Lakes have experienced the greatest fire activity in the western United States, Southern Great Plains, and Florida. Despite over 30 years of increasing fire exposure, fire effects on fresh waters have not been well studied; previous research has generally focused on streams, and most of the limited lake-fire research has been conducted in boreal landscapes. We therefore propose a conceptual model of how fire may influence the physical, chemical, and biological properties of lake ecosystems by synthesizing the best available science from terrestrial, aquatic, fire, and landscape ecology. This model also highlights emerging research priorities and provides a starting point to help land and lake managers anticipate potential effects of fire on ecosystem services provided by fresh waters and their watersheds.

The implications of Simpson's paradox for cross-scale inference among lakes.

Using cross-sectional data for making ecological inference started as a practical means of pooling data to enable meaningful empirical model development. For example, limnologists routinely use sample averages from numerous individual lakes to examine patterns across lakes. The basic assumption behind the use of cross-lake data is often that responses within and across lakes are identical. As data from multiple study units across a wide spatiotemporal scale are increasingly accessible for researchers, an assessment of this assumption is now feasible. In this study, we demonstrate that this assumption is usually unjustified, due largely to a statistical phenomenon known as the Simpson's paradox. Through comparisons of a commonly used empirical model of the effect of nutrients on algal growth developed using several data sets, we discuss the cognitive importance of distinguishing factors affecting lake eutrophication operating at different spatial and temporal scales. Our study proposes the use of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to properly structure the data analysis when data from multiple lakes are employed.

Salinity pulses interact with seasonal dry-down to increase ecosystem carbon loss in marshes of the Florida Everglades.

Coastal wetlands are globally important sinks of organic carbon (C). However, to what extent wetland C cycling will be affected by accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion is unknown, especially in coastal peat marshes where water flow is highly managed. Our objective was to determine how the ecosystem C balance in coastal peat marshes is influenced by elevated salinity. For two years, we made monthly in situ manipulations of elevated salinity in freshwater (FW) and brackish water (BW) sites within Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Salinity pulses interacted with marsh-specific variability in seasonal hydroperiods whereby effects of elevated pulsed salinity on gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) were dependent on marsh inundation level. We found little effect of elevated salinity on C cycling when both marsh sites were inundated, but when water levels receded below the soil surface, the BW marsh shifted from a C sink to a C source. During these exposed periods, we observed an approximately threefold increase in CO2 efflux from the marsh as a result of elevated salinity. Initially, elevated salinity pulses did not affect Cladium jamaicense biomass, but aboveground biomass began to be significantly decreased in the saltwater amended plots after two years of exposure at the BW site. We found a 65% (FW) and 72% (BW) reduction in live root biomass in the soil after two years of exposure to elevated salinity pulses. Regardless of salinity treatment, the FW site was C neutral while the BW site was a strong C source (-334 to -454 g C·m-2 ·yr-1 ), particularly during dry-down events. A loss of live roots coupled with annual net CO2 losses as marshes transition from FW to BW likely contributes to the collapse of peat soils observed in the coastal Everglades. As SLR increases the rate of saltwater intrusion into coastal wetlands globally, understanding how water management influences C gains and losses from these systems is crucial. Under current Everglades' water management, drought lengthens marsh dry-down periods, which, coupled with saltwater intrusion, accelerates CO2 loss from the marsh.

lakemorpho: Calculating lake morphometry metrics in R.

Metrics describing the shape and size of lakes, known as lake morphometry metrics, are important for any limnological study. In cases where a lake has long been the subject of study these data are often already collected and are openly available. Many other lakes have these data collected, but access is challenging as it is often stored on individual computers (or worse, in filing cabinets) and is available only to the primary investigators. The vast majority of lakes fall into a third category in which the data are not available. This makes broad scale modelling of lake ecology a challenge as some of the key information about in-lake processes are unavailable. While this valuable in situ information may be difficult to obtain, several national datasets exist that may be used to model and estimate lake morphometry. In particular, digital elevation models and hydrography have been shown to be predictive of several lake morphometry metrics. The R package lakemorpho has been developed to utilize these data and estimate the following morphometry metrics: surface area, shoreline length, major axis length, minor axis length, major and minor axis length ratio, shoreline development, maximum depth, mean depth, volume, maximum lake length, mean lake width, maximum lake width, and fetch. In this software tool article we describe the motivation behind developing lakemorpho, discuss the implementation in R, and describe the use of lakemorpho with an example of a typical use case.